Draw what you think college costs. Then see the real line.
Before you read another word about tuition, draw the price a family at each income level actually pays. Almost nobody gets it right, and the direction of the error costs people money.
The question we keep seeing
“Everyone says expensive colleges give good aid. How much are we actually talking about?”
The short answer
- Published price and the price families pay are different numbers, and the gap is not small.
- At the most expensive schools in the country, families under $30,000 can pay less than at a state school with a quarter of the sticker price.
- The error almost everyone makes is in one direction: overestimating what the rich schools charge, and underestimating the cheap ones.
Here is one chart and one question. The published price is drawn on it already. Your job is to draw the line underneath it — what a family at each income level actually pays once grants and scholarships come off.
Drag across the chart. Then switch schools and do it again. The second one is where it gets uncomfortable.
Draw what you think a year costs
Published price: $84,040
Drag across the chart to draw the average price a family at each income level actually pays at Princeton University, after grants and scholarships.
Drag across the chart — 5 of 5 still to draw.
What most people draw
Two mistakes, and they compound. The first is drawing the expensive private school's line too high — assuming a big sticker price means a big bill. The second is drawing the public university's line too low, because $33,000 sounds affordable next to $85,000.
Both are wrong for the same reason. A sticker price tells you what a school costs to run, not what it will charge you. What it charges you depends on how much money it has to give away and how it chooses to give it.
The comparison that should change your list
Line up the lowest income band across those schools. A family earning under $30,000 pays more at the public flagship with the $33,000 sticker than at four of the private universities with sticker prices near $85,000. Not marginally more. Multiples more.
That is not because the public university is badly run. It is because a school can only discount what it has, and a large endowment aimed at need-based aid buys a very different bottom line than a state appropriation does. The published price hides this completely — which is why it is the worst possible filter for building a list.
What this number is, exactly
- It is an average, not a quote. Two families in the same band with different assets and different numbers of children in college will get different offers.
- It covers students receiving federal aid. Students who file no FAFSA are not in it.
- At a public university it is the in-state figure. Out-of-state, the line looks very different.
- It is grants and scholarships only. Loans are not subtracted, because a loan is not a discount.Footnote 1Source 1U.S. Department of Education — College Scorecard dataPublishes average net price by family income band per institution — cost of attendance minus grant and scholarship aid, for students receiving federal Title IV aid, reported in-state at public institutions. Figures in the chart above are taken from this release.collegescorecard.ed.gov
So treat the line as a starting point rather than a promise, and get a real estimate from the school's own net price calculator — every college taking federal aid must publish one. The full argument for doing that before you cross any school off a list is in the sticker price is not the price.
Katalyna shows this curve for every school on your list, next to admissions and outcomes, in chances and aid.
Try it in Katalyna
Chances & aid
Net price by income band for every school on your list, from federal data.
Frequently asked
Because a school can only discount what it has. A large endowment directed at need-based aid produces a much lower net price than a sticker price suggests, while a public university's lower published price often comes with far less grant aid behind it.
Cost of attendance minus grants and scholarships — the aid you do not repay. Loans are not subtracted from it, because a loan is the bill deferred, not a discount.
Yes. When grant aid exceeds the entire cost of attendance, the reported figure goes below zero. It means the package covered everything, including living costs.
No — it is an average for families in that income band who received federal aid. Run the school's own net price calculator for an estimate based on your family's actual finances.